San Diego State vs Fresno State 9/29/2012

[RXNewsbot]

AccuScore is forecasting a close game with San Diego State winning 41% of simulations, and Fresno State 59% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. San Diego State commits fewer turnovers in 30% of simulations and they go on to win 56% when they take care of the ball. Fresno State wins 71% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Adam Muema is averaging 68 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (31% chance) then he helps his team win 54%. Derek Carr is averaging 257 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (39% chance) then he helps his team win 74%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is FREST -7.5

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